Published and Forthcoming Papers
- “Building Resilient Health Systems: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone and the 2014 Ebola Outbreak” (with Darin Christensen, Johannes Haushofer, Bilal Siddiqi and Maarten Voors) – Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2021.
- Online Appendix
- Read the JPAL Briefcase
- Listen to the VoxEU podcast
- Read the IPA Policy Brief and Blog Post
- Other press Coverage: NPR, CBS Chicago
- “Queens” (with S.P. Harish), Journal of Political Economy, June 2020.
- Data Appendix
- Press coverage: The Times London, The Economist, The Atlantic, NY Times mention, NY Mag, Marginal Revolution, Chris Blattman’s blog, PS Mag, Vox, The Australian, Live Mint, GovExec.com, Ancient Origins, Semana, Nczas
- See the Econominate video; listen to the Roots of Conflict Podcast
- “The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Indonesia and Colombia” (with Samuel Bazzi, Robert Blair, Christopher Blattman, Matthew Gudgeon, and Richard Peck) – Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics
- “Community-based Crisis Response: Evidence from Sierra Leone’s 2014 Ebola Outbreak“, (with Darin Christensen, Johannes Haushofer, Bilal Siddiqi and Maarten Voors), American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, May 2020.
- “Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response,” (with Van Bavel, Jan, Katherine Baicker et al.) Nature Human Behavior, April 2020.
- “Do Natural Resources Influence Who Comes to Power, and How?” (with Maria Carreri) – 2017. Journal of Politics
- “Reconciling after civil conflict increases social capital but decreases individual wellbeing” (with Jacobus Cilliers and Bilal Siddiqi) – 2016. Science
- Replication Data
- NPR Hidden Brain Podcast and Washington Post-Monkey Cage article by Rachel Glennerster
- Also featured in: Voice of America, Le Monde, Science Daily, The Daily Mail, Pacific Standard, El Espectador, Público, Ecodiario, Diariomedico, EDA, Sinc, Infosalus
- See the IPA policy brief
- “From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector” (with Omar Garcia-Ponce and Kevin Thom) – 2016. Journal of the European Economic Association
- “The White-Man Effect: How Foreigner Presence Affects Behavior in Experiments” (with Jacobus Cilliers and Bilal Siddiqi). 2015. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
- Online Appendix
- Press coverage: NY Mag, Quartz, Debraj Ray’s blog post
- “Bases, Bullets and Ballots: the Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia” (with Suresh Naidu). 2015. Journal of Politics
- Online Appendix
- Replication Package
- Press coverage: Slate article, El Espectador article, Center for Global Development podcast interview; an Exchange with Andrew Gelman is here
- “Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia.” (with Juan Vargas). 2013. Review of Economic Studies
- “Cross-Border Spillover: U.S. Gun Laws and Violence in Mexico.” (with Arindrajit Dube and Omar Garcia Ponce). 2013. American Political Science Review (lead article)
- Online Appendix
- Replication Package
- Press coverage:
- TIME article, NPR interview, Slate post, The New Republic, The Washington Post
- Monkey Cage posts here and here
Working Papers
- “Measuring Religion from Behavior: Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan” (with Joshua Blumenstock and Michael Callen)
- “Situational Decision-making: Training to Meet the Cognitive Demands of Policing” (with Sandy Jo Macarthur and Anuj Shah), in-progress
- Abstract: What are the causes of excessive force in policing? One common view is that excessive force stems from bad actors among officers. Another view focuses on deficiencies in police department regulations and oversight. We introduce an additional perspective that is often overlooked. We suggest that many policing situations create cognitive demands which hinder officer decision-making, leading to uses of excessive force, unnecessary arrests, and other adverse outcomes. This perspective suggests a novel solution for improving policing—namely, training officers to use a set of techniques designed to overcome cognitive biases that surface in these situations. A critical bias is the tendency to jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative explanations. Based on this view, we created a training program that teaches officers to develop multiple explanations for ambiguous situations they encounter, rather than acting based on initial impressions. We evaluated this training in a randomized controlled trial with 2,070 officers from the Chicago Police Department. In a series of lab assessments, we find that treated officers approached ambiguous situations differently: they were significantly more likely to consider a wider range of evidence and develop more explanations for subjects’ actions. Critically, we also find that treated officers performed differently in the field. Specifically, treated officers were less likely to use force and injure subjects over the short-to-medium term. They were also less likely to make discretionary arrests over a longer time period, even while overall officer activity remained the same across treatment and control groups. Our results highlight the power of behavioral insights in improving officer decision-making and reducing adverse policing outcomes
- “Can Secular Media create Religious Backlash: Evidence from Pakistan’s Media Liberalization” (with Joshua Blumenstock and Karrar Hussein)
- “Can Labor Market Opportunities Reshape Gender Norms? Evidence from Northern Nigeria” (with Ben Crost, Marcus Holmlund and Eric Mvukiyehe), in-progress
- Abstract: Can extending economic opportunities to marginalized youth promote female empowerment and alter gender norms? We answer this question in the context of Northern Nigeria, a region currently under Sharia law. Through a randomized control trial, we extend vocational training to impoverished youth, who reside in contexts shaped heavily by the most conservative interpretation of Islam. Our study population includes boys residing in Koranic boarding schools who study with Mallams, as well as girls receiving an Islamic education through home-based schooling. The program we study trains youth in specific trades but does not directly target gender attitudes. Our results show that vocational training substantially increases income-generating activities and earnings for beneficiaries. Moreover, it transforms beneficiary views around gender, leading to more equitable perspectives on whether women should be allowed to attain schooling, work, and have a say in household finances. Importantly, this transformation emerges not just for program beneficiaries, but also their parents and caregivers, who play a critical role in determining whether female wards work, and therefore, in shaping the future economic trajectories of women in the region. Our results therefore highlight the critical role economic opportunities can play in engendering social change.
- Reform Fatigue (with T. Renee Bowen, Jackie Chan and Nicolas Lambert)
Selected Research in the Field
- “Can Contact Reduce Conflict Between Farmers and Herders?” (with Soeren Henn and James Robinson)
Popular Writing
“Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?” (with Katherine Baicker, Sendhil Mullainathan and Devin Pope). The New York Times – Opinion, May 6, 2020.
“How You Can Protect Your Community, Not Just Your Own Health” (with Katherine Baicker) The New York Times – Economic View, March 26, 2020.